San Antonio Spurs: The NBA's best Chance at Knocking off the Heat

The Miami Heat have become an unstoppable force to end the NBA season. Having won their last 22 games has cemented them as one of the hottest teams in history. As the defending champions they have always been the favorites this year but that point has been hammered home during this win streak. LeBron James is clearly the best player in the game, this has been true for several years and will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. Dwyane Wade is again playing like the top five player that he was before teaming up with LeBron ( and taking a back seat). The Heat are playing the type of basketball that could lead to them breaking the record for wins in a row.

Miami has shown that no one can stop them in the East if they are at their best. The last time they played in a rematch against the 2012 NBA Finals Western conference foes, they beat up Thunder en route to a blow out. That isn't to say that the Heat winning a title is forgone conclusion, I believe one team will stand in their way, The San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are one of the few teams in the league that match up well with the Heat, to see why you just need look at the stats and he weaknesses they point out.


Rebounding 
Statistic
Miami Heat 2500 Total Rebounds, Last in the NBA

This is the most deceiving of the Heat's weaknesses. Eric Spoelstra has always been a coach who emphasized getting back on defense first and offensive rebounding second, so their lack of rebounding is in part designed.
San Antonio subscribes to the same rebounding philosophy. With the Heat having one of the most explosive fast break attacks in the league, getting back on defense becomes all the more essential. That doesn't mean that Spurs can't crash one or two players to the glass to take advantage of Miami's woeful defensive rebounding.

Miami's rebounding problems can be broken down to two factors. First, a lack of rebounding from their bigs, specifically all star Chris Bosh (12.6 rebounding percentage, good for 7th on the team). Second, and most importantly, their rotating defense causes their big men to blitz screens and defend on the perimeter making it so a lot of defensive rebounds come down to a guard/wing attempting to box out the other teams big man.

The best way to beat any defense is ball movement, which the Spurs excel at (first in the league in assists) but against a trapping defense it becomes even more important. With San Antonio's ability to move the ball Miami will find itself more out of position for rebounds than normal, allowing the front court players Popovich does send to the glass to excel. Tiago Splitter, Tim Duncan and even DeJuan Blair (the three best rotation offensive rebounders), will find the gaps in the Miami rotation and be a big threat on the glass against Miami.


Interior Scoring
Statistic:
Heat percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 31%, 38%
Opponents percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 38%, 51%
Spurs' percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 37%, 50%

The Heat lack a post presence, both offensively and defensively. Their best interrior player, Chris Bosh, has the offensive skill set of a small forward. Their offense is founded upon the idea of spacing the floor with shooters in order to allow LeBron James and Dwyane Wade the space to drive to the hoop. The Heat thrive by pulling shot blockers away from the hoop, creating lanes to the basket. It is for this reason that the Heat struggle against zone defenses, that keep their shot blockers in and around the painted area.

San Antonio is one of the most disciplined defenses in the league, lead by the league leader in defensive rating, Tim Duncan. The Spurs will zone up, staying home in the paint on rotations leaving Wade and James little room to drive to the hoop. Even when the Spurs play man to man defense against the Heat, their help principles have much in common with a zone.

The best way to defeat a collapsing match up zone type defense that the Spurs will throw at Miami is to get the ball inside to break down the zone, then throw the ball out for open shots. Miami's lack of interior scoring will make shots difficult, forcing LeBron into many ill advised shots. If Miami can not manufacture shots close to the basket to break down San Antonio's defense expect LeBron to develop a fake injury reminiscent of elbow injuries past, en route to missing a ton of contested jumpers.

Fouls
Statistic:
Miami Heat .208 Free Throws per Field Goal Attempted, 19th in NBA

If you adjust for the pace that they play at (shockingly slow at 23rd in the league even after factoring in James and Wade's breakouts) the Miami Heat are near the bottom third in the league in fouls committed per shot attempted. Now this number is considerably more perplexing when you consider that fouls are almost never called on LeBron or Flash, a combined 3.7 fouls over 72.9 minutes a game.

The Spurs play at a much faster pace than the Heat are comfortable with. With the increased number of possessions the Heat's fouls will probably increase. If the Spurs are able to get the ball inside and challenge the Heat's size deficiency they have a good chance to have the Heat  at a bigger size disadvantage than their normal tiny front court.

Yes Lebron and Wade are great, but if their teammates are ushering the Spurs to the free throw line, their chance of victory plummets. With the Spurs combination of size, speed and ball movement San Antonio could force Miami into a lot of fouls.


Lack of Attempts
Statistic
Heat 5092 Field Goals attempted, last in NBA

The Heat are the best shooting team in the league, leading the NBA with a .548 effective field goal rate. They  take a lot of good shots and knock them down at a great rate. However, they have compiled these numbers against a worse than average schedule (25th in the NBA). Against, more difficult playoff competition the Heat might not have as easy a time scoring.

In the playoffs, defense is taken to the next level. At the same time due to the importance of the games, each possession becomes that much more vital. Regardless, of how good teams shoot, it is important to get as many scoring opportunities as possible. With the Heat lacking in both pace and rebounding they do not create the extra shots that can be the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs.

The Spurs on the other hand, are 7th in the league in pace, they are 19th in total rebounds both far superior to Miami's numbers in these categories. These extra possessions in the NBA finals will force the Heat and Lebron short of their ultimate goal. If the Heat are to lose in the playoffs these concern areas will be their undoing.

Quick Halftime Thoughts: Celts/Heat

1. Jeff Green is playing the game of his life tonight, and we are only halfway through. He had 21 points in a 9 minute stretch, and is 9-12 from the field. Unless Miami starts to play Chris Bosh and Chris Anderson together in stretches with Lebron James at the three covering Green(which opens up all of Boston's shooters or creates a mismatch for those bigs), expect Green to be going to hole all second half just like he did in the first.

2. The fouls on Boston's side are troubling. All starters have two, and Jason Terry got three quick ones. While some were questionable, the Heat stayed calm and did what they do best, get to the rack.

3. The fact that the Heat are only down six right now is troubling. Lebron quietly has 18 points and 6 assists. You have to know that this game will come down to if Boston can continue to play the halfcourt defense they have by congesting the lane.

4. Ray Allen and Shane Battier going a combined 1-6 from three is a major stat in this game. If they are even hitting half of those, the Celtics can't double Lebron in the paint with such aggressiveness that they have been. FYI, the Heat as a team are just 3-10. The Celtics are 5-11.

5. Lebron's dunk was insane. Like, I will have nightmares insane.

6. Bradley's block won't get as much PR, but it is just as insane.

7. Chris Bosh could be the X-factor in this game. While he isn't going much on the offensive end, if he can prevent the Celtics from getting into the lane as easy as they have guys like Courtney Lee and Avery Bradley will have to make jumpers.

 8. Jeffrey Green. It needed to be said again.


See you after the game!

-Bford

Spencer Hawes takes St. Patrick's Day Seriously.

Almost everyone else in the world took celebrating St. Patrick's Day as a way to relax and kick back. Not Spencer Hawes though. Definitely not Spencer Hawes.

Can you say Blue Steel? Also, mad props for the Sonics snap back. (Conspiracy Theory?)

-Bford

-via @spencerhawes00

The Atlantic Division is Up For Grabs

Early on in this NBA season, it seemed as though the New York Knicks had a firm grasp on the Atlantic Division title, seeming then to be clearly the best team in a talented division. However, as father time slowly wreaked havoc on the aging Knicks roster, the rest of the division played catch-up and it now looks to be a three team race to the finish. In this Atlantic Divison round-up, I'll look at the Knicks, Nets, and Celtics chances at coming out on top.

These two don't hug often...something about Honey-Nut Cheerios if I recall

New York Knicks:
What a whirlwind of a season this has been for the Knicks, from the 8-1 start, to the late December/Early January slide, to the January 24th triumph over the Celtics in Boston, to what is now a 4 game losing streak.  This team has simply been all over the map, failing to find the consistency night in and night out that is generally required of a division champ. For starters, I think we all kind of saw this coming due in part to the fact that there top 3 scorers in Carmelo Anthony, J.R. Smith, and Raymond Felton are high volume, low efficiency shooters (all shoot under 44%) and because of the age/health concerns of many of the main contributors for this team.  First it was the loss of Rasheed Wallace for the season due to a foot injury.  While Sheed may have been shooting the ball poorly, his ability to defend at a high level and stretch the floor as a big man on the second unit fit in perfectly with what the Knicks were trying to do.  When he got hurt, there seemed to be an immediate drop off in the way the team played for me.  They lost an edge.  This injury was coupled with the fact that fellow big man Marcus Camby was also dealing with injuries of his own, leaving the Knicks short handed up front. Then they got some good news with Amare returning and not only playing well, but accepting his role as a 6th man. The team once against seemed to hit a stride in mid January looking good for a few weeks going 9-3 over that stretch.  More recently however we have seen knee injuries to Amare, Carmelo and Tyson Chandler (also a neck strain) all derail the Knicks success.

While anyone watching the Knicks will say that when they are healthy they are a dangerous team, that "when" is now a big "if". Amare is done for the regular season after getting his knee scoped yet he should return sometime early in the playoffs. It looks as though Chandler's injury is pretty mild as he originally had a knee contusion and now is listed as having a strained muscle in his neck, so I would expect him back within a couple games. The biggest question mark for Knicks fans is their golden boy: Carmelo Anthony. He is leaned on to do so much offensively that the team looks lost without him and have been having to rely on the unreliable JR Smith for offense.  Smith has shot the ball over 18 times a game in March to a woeful tune of 38.7%.

So, the Knicks have 18 games remaining, 9 at home and 9 away from MSG.  They face the Celtics, Raptors, and Hawks twice.  They also face Western conference powerhouses in the Thunder (away) and Grizzlies (home) as well as playoff caliber teams in the Pacers, Bulls, Jazz, and Bucks. Oh yeah and they face Miami in Miami April 2nd.  In evaluating their schedule, the best I see them doing is 10-8, but more realistically 9-9 or 8-10.  IF however they are still struggling through injuries over the next couple weeks, that number could easily drop to something like 6-12.  With a current record of 38-26 and giving them a fair split 9-9 in their last 18, they would finish with a record of 47-35.

Brooklyn Nets:
Currently sitting at 38-28, they are just 1 game behind the Knicks (2 in the loss column). While the Nets have not had the injury concerns of that Knicks, they have had their own fair share of drama. With the in-season firing of coach Avery Johnson and the promotion of assistant PJ Carlesimo to head coach, the change in leadership was certainly a spark to this team.  They won 9 of 10 and 13 of 15 to start the new regime under Carlesimo.  The team has cooled off recently, splitting 8 games in March, but showed us all with their winning ways of January, that they can be elite for stretches. While franchise player Deron Williams struggled mightily early in the season with his shot, he has shot 47% overall and 46% from downtown since the All-Star game.  Brook Lopez continues to play well leading the team in scoring at nearly 19 a game on 52% shooting.  The inconsistencies of the rest of the team have been frustrating and has led to the coach continuing to try and find the right rotation of players.  12 million dollar a year man Kris Humphries-Kardashian has been in and out of the lineup and now looks to be back in.  The best thing Humphries has done all year was this Foot Locker commercial:

Anyways, with 16 games remaining for the Nets with a whopping 11 of those 16 on the road, they face an uphill battle to pass the Knicks.  The Nets start an 8 game road trip tonight and they must be cursing the NBA schedule makers because a fucking 8 game road trip to end March/start April is about as rough as it gets.  Thankfully only 3 of the teams they are facing are above .500 (Clippers, Nuggets, and Jazz) but don't discount how good Dallas and Portland can play.  In another 3 game road trip in mid-April they face Boston, Indiana, and the new look Raptors.  A big edge for the Nets is that in there 5 home games they only face one team, in the Bulls, who are above .500. I'm going to go ahead and predict a 9-7 finish for the Nets, placing them in a tie with New York in my above predictions at 47-35. Seriously, this is not for drama, this is really what it looks like when I break down their remaining games. If they can win at both Dallas and Portland though, I think they have a good shot at taking home the division.

Boston Celtics:

The Celtics want to get in a fight

The Celtics currently sit at 36-29, 2.5 games back of the Knicks and have shown incredible pride in playing competitively despite season ending injuries to Rajon Rondo, Jared Sullinger, and Leandro Barbosa. The team relies on ball movement offensively, but is certainly a defensive minded unit.  They want to "ugly-up" a game and make it come down to a few last possessions for each team in which they feel they can out-execute any opponent.With 17 games remaining that include 8 at home and 9 on the road, the team has its work cut out for them to make up ground.  They face Miami twice, including tonight's tilt when the Heat try to win their 23rd straight.  They also face the Knicks and Cavs twice.  Other games include Memphis on the road as well as Brooklyn, Indiana, and Atlanta at home.  They do face some of the NBAs worst too in Washington, Minnesota, Orlando, Detroit, New Orleans and of course the aforementioned two games against Cleveland. A realistic outlook at the Celtics, puts them at 11-6 (losses to Miami twice, Indiana, Memphis, Dallas, and Knicks) record the rest of the way, for a, you guessed it, 47-35 record.  Honest to god, I did these projections and then looked down to find that all teams projected to the same record. I could easily see the C's slipping up against Detroit or Toronto, but those games are at home, and the team has played exceptionally well in the Garden since Rondo went down as they are 11-0 in that stretch (that will likely change tonight when Miami Visits).

What it all means?
So have I copped out by placing all the teams with identical records? I guess, but its just coincidental.  What it really comes down to is who wins the games against each other.  Boston will have two chances to play the Knicks.  Win both and you will likely surge ahead of the Knicks.  Brooklyn faces both teams and can make up a lot of ground by winning those and splitting their road games.  The Knicks need to maintain while their stars get healthy. This division is a total toss up and every game matters, who do you think takes home the division crown?

NBA Draft Prospect Watch: ACC Tournament

The ACC tournament starts today at noon with Boston College taking on  Georgia Tech at the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. The conference tournaments provide the world with one last chance to watch the premier teams on a neutral floor before March Madness starts. Filling out a solid bracket usually starts by understanding who is playing their best basketball to end the season, and there is no better place to ascertain this than, the conference tournaments.

For NBA fans the conference tournaments have an additional function. These tourneys allow players  to begin a meteoric rise that could lift an athlete to the first round, or on the flip side show the holes in their game that prove they are not NBA material.

Since I am Boston College basketball fan, I make sure to watch as much ACC basketball as my time allows. With some knowledge of the Atlantic Coast draft prospects I give you the top five prospects to look out for in the ACC tournament (in no particular order)

Erick Green
Virginia Tech
Combo Guard

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
25.4	4.1	3.9	.482	0.2

NBA Comparable: Jason Terry
NBA Role: Bench Microwave Scorer

Green has had an outstanding season. Despite playing on an awful team he was able to capture the ACC player of the year trophy, which usually goes to the best player on the best team in the conference. Green is a superb scorer, with good straight line speed to the hoop. He also has a wide array of off the dribble moves that he uses to create space for his high releasing jump shot.

Being that he is already 22 years old he lacks the upside of some of his draft counterparts. What he lacks in upside he makes up for by being a professional scorer (even in the college ranks). If he is drafted by a team that allows him to provide bench scoring and doesn't ask too much he should excel. If a team drafts him to be their point guard and asks him to get his teammates involved he will flounder in the league. Expect him to go in the second round due to the NBA's recent phobia of college Seniors.
 
Alex Len
Maryland
Center

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
11.8	8.1	0.8	.526	1.9

 NBA Comparable: (a poor man's) Pau Gasol
NBA Role: Skilled Finesse Big Man

Alex Len is a enormous prospect that doesn't come around often. Standing at 7'1 and weighing 255 he looks every bit the part of an elite center in the NBA, that combined with his youth (19 years old) screams potential. On top of his physical make up, Len is an extremely skilled post player, possessing good touch around the basket, and the ability to score over both shoulders in the post.

Despite the glowing previous paragraph, Len has failed to live up to his elite potential in his two years at Maryland. There are two reasons for this, the Terapin guards have not been getting him the ball in good scoring position and his inability to get deep post position. The latter reason is extremely troubling. Game after game Len was pushed out of the paint by players who were smaller but stronger than him. If Len can get stronger so that he can receive the ball in a position to score, he will be a very good NBA player.

Mason Plumlee
Duke
Power Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
17.2	10.3	2	.589	1.5

NBA Comparable: Taj Gibson
NBA Role: Uptempo Power Forward

Mason Plumlee is a perfect example of scouts having too much film on a four year player. As is often the case Seniors are viewed more harshly than younger players, after playing four seasons scouts have had the opportunity to see every fault of a player. As careers progress Seniors are viewed more on what they can't do than what they can, where with freshman weaknesses can be dismissed due to inexperience.

Plumlee is one of the best players in the ACC. He leads an elite team in an elite conference. He has the length to finish at the rim on offense and bother shots on defense. He can finish with either hand, in the post and can occasionally knock down the mid range jumper. However, all of this is diminished because he has less upside the his younger counterparts in the draft.

Through his college career Plumlee has been a strong, steady force for the Blue Devils. Although, there were games where he was shut down, the positives far outweigh the negatives. Despite being a very good college player, his game is tailor made for the NBA. His length, athleticism and ability to run the floor will allow him to flourish in the wide open professional game.

James McAdoo
North Carolina
Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
14.6	7.6	1.2	.448	0.4

NBA Comparable: Thaddeus Young
NBA Role: 3/4 Match Up Nightmare

McAdoo is exactly the type of player that scared teams to death 10 years ago, the dreaded tweener. Fortunarely for him, the NBA has changed in the last ten years. Before every team in the league had someone who could score from the low post, now those true post scorers are in the single digits. This lack of post scoring is a great thing for McAdoo, who could be exposed on the defensive end for his lack of height. The league today simply does not have the players to take advantage of this deficiency.

While McAdoo might not have the length to effectively defend in the post, he has the strength, athleticism and the motor to be an effective rebounder. Rebounding has replaced post defensive as the most essential skill for power forwards and McAdoo has this skill in spades. On offense he is relentless in attacking the glass, on defense he consistently boxes out which might not help his individual rebounding numbers, but it does help Carolina's overall rebounding numbers.

 At the four in the NBA, McAdoo will use his speed to get a plethora of baskets in transition. He will make it in the league as an energy player getting offensive rebounds and playing hard.

C.J. Leslie
North Carolina State
Small  Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
14.9	7.5	1.4	.531	1.2

NBA Comparable: Tyrus Thomas/Hakim Warrick
NBA Role: Athletic Small Forward off bench

A great athlete who can take over games by being active. Unfortunately his activity level wanes from time to time. In the NBA this inconsistent effort will get him a one way ticket to the bench. If he is able to bottle his athleticism and make sure his motor never stops he could be a very good player.

Despite playing power forward in college Leslie is of too slight build to play the same position in the pros. Everyone would back him down in the paint and get layups, just like they do to Hakim Warrick. The difference between their games to me is the quickness and strength of Leslie, which I believe will allow him to play defense in way Warrick has not been able to in the pros.

At this point and time his game is strictly about length and vertical, but with work he could develop a consistent face up game to go along with his god given talents. With his high upside he could easily get hot in the tournament, and his stock could skyrocket.

Chris Wright Defying the Odds

Alot of times my morning post has to do with a weird stat, someone being dunked on, or JR Smith tweeting something stupid. Not today, as a great story has emerged out of Dallas.

It is the time of the year where 10-day contracts become more frequent, and thus if you read on a transactions page "Dallas Mavericks sign G Chris Wright to 10-Day contract", you might be quick to look over it. What that sentence doesn't mention, is that Chris Wright is the first known NBA player in league history to be playing with Multiple Sclerosis.

(Wright with the Iowa Energy earlier this year.)

For those who don't know, MS is an autoimmune disease that affects the brain and spinal cord (central nervous system). While every NBA player has to look over their body with doctors to make sure they are in peak condition, Chris has do that even more(sometimes multiple times a day) to make sure he is not putting himself in harms way when on the court.

Chris is definitely a player when he is healthy. Wright was a four year player at Georgetown, and in 38 games for the Iowa Energy in the D-League he was averaging 15PTS, 7ASTS, and almost 2STLS a game. While he may not get much run as Dallas has worked its way back into the playoff picture, make sure to check the box score to keep track on this amazing story.

Tim McMahon of ESPN Dallas did a great job reporting on this, make sure to check out his story here. 



-Bford

A Great Night Of NBA Action: The Important Stuff

1. Kevin Garnett passed the Logo himself Jerry West for 15th all time in scoring.  Paul Pierce passed Charles Barkley to move into 20th. When super-stars like KG and The Truth break records it reminds us not only how timeless these guys really are, but how great the players were that came before them.
The C's won big at home against Toronto too.


2. Larry Sanders was ejected last night after picking up two techs.  Great, family friendly reaction.

3. Kobe rolled his ankle in the Laker loss to Atlanta.  Some sources are calling it a severe ankle sprain but that is BS.  He walked off on his own and wasn't using crutches after the game so it can't be too severe.  He may or may not miss a game when the Lakers really can't afford to lose, but if he does sit, I can't see it being for more than three games. Kobe rightfully complained after that shooters need room to land: 

"As defensive players, you can contest shots, but you can't walk underneath players, That's dangerous for the shooter."

Bryant later tweeted: "#dangerousplay that should have been called. Period."

4. Memphis beat the Clippers 96-85 IN STAPLES. Memphis has looked really good of late, and in this game they MOVED AHEAD of the Clippers for 3rd in the West.  And it gets worse for Lob City...

5. Denver has now won 10 in a row and are just a game behind the Clippers for 4th in the West and the all important Home Court in round 1. They demolished the Knicks 117-94. Don't sleep on the Nuggets people, they have size, great point guard play, and athletic wings. This team may be a problem for the top seeds in the West, especially if they keep moving up the standings and get to play more games in the mile high air of Denver where they have a ridiculous record of 29-3, only one win off of the best home record in the NBA behind Miami.

6. Sacramento Kings players shocked the world by beating the Bulls by 42 121-79.  WHAT!? Yep and they played without DeMarcus Cousins.  Addition by subtraction anyone???

7. Oh and that team from Miami won again, make it 20 Straight for Lebron and crew.